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Oscar predictions and last minute thoughts on Hollywood’s longest night

February 23rd, 2008 by Scott Marks

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Oscar……………………………….Picks

At least we have one thing to look forward to: Marty is guaranteed to make an appearance to hand out this year’s best director award.

Admittedly, I have never been much use when it comes to handicapping the Oscars. As much as I enjoy the more ghoulish aspects of the ceremony, I detest what these prizes represent. Art shouldn’t compete especially when all everyone is concerned with is commerce. Besides, who cares about art when we have starlets on the red carpet eager for our evaluation of their designer gowns?

Contests to predict the winners have been going on for ages. In the late 70s, a high school chum dreamed that he entered the offices of the Chicago Tribune with chain in hand screaming “I’M HERE TO BEAT SISKEL.” My literal minded crony was fantasizing over the newspaper’s annual “Beat Siskel” contest that asked readers to outguess their prized critic’s Oscar picks.

Every year I tried to beat (down) Siskel and every year I lost. I haven’t a clue as to what (other than wind) goes through the minds of Academy voters. It might help if they were to occasionally nominate a picture that displayed something other than nice scenery and good intentions. Over the past twenty years, only three best picture winners (The Last Emperor, Unforgiven, Million Dollar Baby) appeared on my top ten lists. (The fact that it took the Academy decades to finally catch up with Clint Eastwood owes more to the law of averages rather than any genuine recognition of artistry.) Conversely, Rain Man, Schindler’s List, Forrest Gump, Braveheart, Shakespeare in Love, American Beauty, Chicago and Crash all found worthy homes in my critical dungeon.

In a not so bold attempt to make me look like a schmuck come Monday morning, here are the pictures and people that will probably lose simply because I prematurely envisioned them winners. My choices by no means indicate a film that deserves acclaim; it’s what my gut tells me the Academy voters will go for.

Best Picture: “Atonement,” “Juno,” “Michael Clayton,” “No Country for Old Men,” “There Will Be Blood.”

Best Actor: George Clooney, “Michael Clayton”; Daniel Day-Lewis, “There Will Be Blood”; Johnny Depp, “Sweeney Todd the Demon Barber of Fleet Street”; Tommy Lee Jones, “In the Valley of Elah”; Viggo Mortensen, “Eastern Promises.”

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”; Julie Christie, “Away From Her”; Marion Cotillard, “La Vie en Rose”; Laura Linney, “The Savages”; Ellen Page, “Juno.”

Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”; Javier Bardem, “No Country for Old Men”; Hal Holbrook, “Into the Wild”; Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Charlie Wilson’s War”; Tom Wilkinson, “Michael Clayton.”

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, “I’m Not There”; Ruby Dee, “American Gangster”; Saoirse Ronan, “Atonement”; Amy Ryan, “Gone Baby Gone”; Tilda Swinton, “Michael Clayton.”

Best Director: Julian Schnabel, “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”; Jason Reitman, “Juno”; Tony Gilroy, “Michael Clayton”; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, “No Country for Old Men”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “There Will Be Blood.”

Foreign Film: “Beaufort,” Israel; “The Counterfeiters,” Austria; “Katyn,” Poland; “Mongol,” Kazakhstan; “12,” Russia.

Adapted Screenplay: Christopher Hampton, “Atonement”; Sarah Polley, “Away from Her”; Ronald Harwood, “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”; Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, “No Country for Old Men”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “There Will Be Blood.”

Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, “Juno”; Nancy Oliver, “Lars and the Real Girl”; Tony Gilroy, “Michael Clayton”; Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava and Jim Capobianco, “Ratatouille”; Tamara Jenkins, “The Savages.”

Animated Feature Film: “Persepolis”; “Ratatouille”; “Surf’s Up.”

Art Direction: “American Gangster,” “Atonement,” “The Golden Compass,” “Sweeney Todd the Demon Barber of Fleet Street,” “There Will Be Blood.”

Cinematography: “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford,” “Atonement,” “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” “No Country for Old Men,” “There Will Be Blood.”

Sound Mixing: “The Bourne Ultimatum,” “No Country for Old Men,” “Ratatouille,” “3:10 to Yuma,” “Transformers.”

Sound Editing: “The Bourne Ultimatum,” “No Country for Old Men,” “Ratatouille,” “There Will Be Blood,” “Transformers.”

Original Score: “Atonement,” Dario Marianelli; “The Kite Runner,” Alberto Iglesias; “Michael Clayton,” James Newton Howard; “Ratatouille,” Michael Giacchino; “3:10 to Yuma,” Marco Beltrami.

Original Song: “Falling Slowly” from “Once,” Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova; “Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted,” Alan Menken and Stephen Schwartz; “Raise It Up” from “August Rush,” Nominees to be determined; “So Close” from “Enchanted,” Alan Menken and Stephen Schwartz; “That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted,” Alan Menken and Stephen Schwartz.

Costume: “Across the Universe,” “Atonement,” “Elizabeth: The Golden Age,” “La Vie en Rose,” “Sweeney Todd the Demon Barber of Fleet Street.”

Documentary Feature: “No End in Sight,” “Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience,” “Sicko,” “Taxi to the Dark Side,” “War/Dance.”

Documentary (short subject): “Freeheld,” “La Corona (The Crown),” “Salim Baba,” “Sari’s Mother.” (No prediction.)

Film Editing: “The Bourne Ultimatum,” “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” “Into the Wild,” “No Country for Old Men,” “There Will Be Blood.”

Makeup: “La Vie en Rose,” “Norbit,” “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End.”

Animated Short Film: “I Met the Walrus,” “Madame Tutli-Putli,” “Meme Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven),” “My Love (Moya Lyubov),” “Peter & the Wolf.”

Live Action Short Film: “At Night,” “Il Supplente (The Substitute),” “Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets),” “Tanghi Argentini,” “The Tonto Woman.”

Visual Effects: “The Golden Compass,” “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End,” “Transformers.”

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